A MUST SEE !!

At one time, both the pseudoscientific geocentric notion of the universe (that the Earth lies at the center of the solar system) and eugenics (the racial theory to “purify” the human race) were widely accepted by leaders in science, politics, journalism, and business.

Such theories were pushed by powerful interest groups that possessed highly politicized agendas driving government policies and public opinion, until ultimately both theories were disproved.

Is environmental debate today, including global warming, bio-technology, and other issues, based on science or politics? Are popular accounts of such issues rooted in science or phantom risks? Are government policies focusing on the trivial while ignoring the real, and in the process wasting limited resources, crippling human innovation to address true dangers, and inviting tyranny?

In discussing not just environmental issues but the increasing politicization of science itself, best-selling author Michael Crichton examines the intersection of media, politics, and science, inspiring viewers to challenge old assumptions and to search beneath the surface of issues as they seek to discover the truth. Scientists Bruce Ames (U.C. Berkeley), Sallie Baliunas (Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics), William Gray (Colorado State U.), and Oregon State Climatologist George Taylor show how scientific debates have been politicized by appealing to the fears of an uninformed public.

sp32-36.jpg

There are different things that are of personal use. There are personal computers, personal music players, personal phones.
Transportation means are also became much more personal in 20th century, personal cars, bikes, skiing etc. This Russian man from St. Petersburg got his personal submarine. He built it himself and it is the smallest submarine in Russia, officially registered as a boat by Russian boat registry and has got it’s own personal name and number. He can make an underwater trip from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Finland and back without stops, and he can go as fast as four knots. The interesting thing that he is based in St. Petersburg which is in Northern part of Russia so the water in the sea is cold all year round.

More photos and rest of the story here - englishrussia.com

Watch this amazing display of 714 metal balls on strings. It really gets creative after 1 minute. So please be patient.

After sitting idly by, doing little, I am compelled to take ACTION !

Al Gore - Propagandist and environmental alarmist.

Irena Sendler - During World War II helped save 2,500 Jewish children from the Warsaw Ghetto by providing them with false documents and sheltering them in individual and group children’s homes outside the Ghetto: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irena_Se…

The Nobel Peace Prize - awarded “to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

Irena Sendler was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, but lost to Al Gore’s propaganda film.

Parental warning: Contains (very tasteful) nudity.

Six hundred people shed their clothes on a glacier in the Swiss Alps to bodily cry out for help against a planetary emergency: global warming.

The nude volunteers posed for us and renowned naked “installation” artist Spencer Tunick on the Aletsch Glacier.

Without clothes, the human body is vulnerable, exposed, its life or death at the whim of the elements. Global warming is stripping away our glaciers and leaving our entire planet vulnerable to extreme weather, floods, sea-level rise, global decreases in carrying capacity and agricultural production, fresh water shortages, disease and mass human dislocations.

If global warming continues at its current rate, most glaciers in Switzerland will completely disappear by 2080, leaving nothing but valleys and slopes strewn with rock debris.

June 24th, 2008Flex-O-Ladder

June 24th, 2008Battle at Kruger

phillips66.jpgBill Phillips spent nearly 50 years in the US oil and gas industry; most of his career was with the Phillips Petroleum Company. Bill is a descendant of Frank Phillips. Frank Phillips, along with his brother Lee ldas (L.E.) Phillips, Sr., founded the original Phillips Petroleum Company in 1917 in Bartlesville, OK. Do you remember Phillips 66 gas stations? Phillips Petroleum Company merged with Conoco, Inc. in 2002 to form the current ConocoPhillips oil company.

So, when Bill talks about oil and gas issues, listen - very closely. You will find Bill’s thoughts and facts very revealing, very compelling and very difficult to argue with.

As you prepare to cast your crucial ballots this Fall, please think long and hard about the far-reaching, cumulative effects of the US political philosophies, policies and legislation that have contributed to the current and future US oil supply situation.

Did you know that the United States does NOT have any big oil companies. It’s true: the largest American oil company, Exxon Mobil, is only the 14th largest in the world, and is dwarfed by the really big oil companies–all owned by foreign governments or government-sponsored monopolies–that dominate the world’s oil supply.

With 94% of the world’s oil supply locked up by foreign governments, most of which are hostile to the United States, the relatively puny American oil companies do not have access to enough crude oil to significantly affect the market and help bring prices down. Thus, ExxonMobil, a “small” oil company, buys 90% of the crude oil that it refines for the U.S. market from the big players, i.e, mostly-hostile foreign governments. The price at the U.S. pump is rising because the price the big oil companies charge ExxonMobil and the other small American companies for crude oil is going up as the value of the American dollar goes down. They will eventually bleed this country into printing even more money and we will go into runway inflation once again as we did under the Carter Democratic reign.

This is obviously a tough situation for the American consumer. The irony is that it doesn’t have to be that way. The United States–unlike, say, France–actually has vast petroleum reserves. It would be possible for American oil companies to develop those reserves, play a far bigger role in international markets, and deliver gas at the pump to American consumers at a much lower price, while creating many thousands of jobs for Americans. This would be infinitely preferable to shipping endless
billions of dollars to Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela to be used in propping up their economies.

So, why doesn’t it happen? Because the Democrat Party aided, sadly, by a handful of Republicans deliberately keeps gas prices high and our domestic oil companies small by putting most of our reserves off limits to development. China is now drilling in the Caribbean, off Cuba, but our own companies are barred by law from developing large oil fields off the coasts of Florida and California! Enormous oil-shale deposits in the Rocky Mountain states could go a long way toward supplying American consumers’ needs, but the Democratic Congress won’t allow those resources to be developed. ANWR contains vast petroleum reserves, but we don’t know how vast, because Congress, not wanting the American people to know how
badly its policies are hurting our economy, has made it illegal to explore and map those reserves, let alone develop them.

In short, all Americans are paying a terrible price for the Democratic Party’s perverse energy policies. I own some small interests in tiny, 4 barrel-per-day oil wells in Wyoming. We have 14 agencies that have iron-hand jurisdiction over us. If we drop any oil on the ground when the refinery truck comes to pick up oil from our holding tanks, we are fined. Yet down the road the state will spray thousands of gallons of used oil on a dirt road to control dirt. When it rains that oil runs into rivers and
> creeks. Yet a cup of oil on the ground at our wellhead is a $50,000 EPA fine plus additional fines from state regulating agencies. They treat oil as if it were plutonium that has the potential to leak into the environment. We are fined if our dirt berms are not high enough around a holding tank, yet the truck that picks up our oil runs down the road at 60 mph with no berm around it. People wonder why there is no more exploration in this country. It’s because of the regulators; people who have lived their whole lives doing nothing but imposing fines on small operators like us for doing mostly nothing.

So, America enjoy your $4.00 per gallon gasoline. Your dollar is now worth 0.62 Euro-Cents. The lack of American production of GNP, the massive trade deficit (as labor markets have moved overseas to fight insanely high union imposed labor costs in America) and the run away printing of money (backed by nothing of value here in America) has caused the dollar to become more worthless on the international market. And that’s where our oil comes from. It’s paid for with dollars that become more worthless everyday. If we had just kept par with the Euro we’d be paying $62 dollars per barrel for oil (42 gallons) or about $1.50 instead of $2.50 a gallon for crude oil.

What the US government also does not tell you is that it is the leaseholder and royalty recipient of most oil production and receives 25% of the gross oil sales before we pay for electricity to lift the oil, propane to keep the oil-water separators from freezing in the winters. We pay a pumper to visit each well everyday plus we have equipment failures all the time. We pay for that out of our 75% of gross sales. The government does not share in any expenses to run any production well. So, if the Big Oil Companies are making record profits, then so is the federal government from it’s 25% tax on every molecule of oil sold to
a refinery in this country. Why isn’t the government on the stand for “Record” profits? What you don’t see is this 25% of the sales price of crude oil being siphoned away by the government. That money plus the road taxes, state taxes, etc. amounts to over $1 per gallon of gasoline you are buying while the governments only admit to about 50 cents per gallon.

To all you Democrats, when you go vote for your candidate, a blazing liberal like Barrack Hussein Obama, just keep in mind that their liberal spending habits will further decrease the value of the American dollar on the world market and your gasoline costs will hike even higher. As they introduce more give-away programs, raise taxes on everyone to pay people not to produce or work, your dollar will continue to dwindle on the world market and you will be paying $10.00 per gallon at the next election. Cheap hydrocarbon fuel is all over.

Enjoy the fruits of your decision to elect these folks that are literally taking your money out of your wallet when you are there in that voting booth and you stab your pin through a Democrat’s name!

William “Bill” Phillips

Thanks Willa for this !!

Boortz “tell’s it like it is”…I hope everyone will read this speech and listen to the hard truth.  I love it when someone is honest in public!!

This  Texas lawyer, himself recipient of an Honorary Degree, is obviously
opinionated, but to say what he does, in a commencement address a couple of
weeks ago, in front of a class of Texas A & M graduates, and especially the
faculty, is amazing. I would have loved to have been there just to see the
faculty reaction.

Commencement Address ( Texas A&M) Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 04:14:32 +0000

This should be considered must-reading for every adult in  North America . It
is extremely rare that anyone speaks the truth like this at any College or
High School Commencement Address.

Neal Boortz is a Texan, a lawyer, a Texas AGGIE (Texas A&M), and now a
nationally syndicated talk show host from  Atlanta . His commencement address
to the graduates of this year’s A&M class is far different from what either
the students or the faculty expected. His views are thought provoking.

“I am honored by the invitation to address you on this imposing occasion.
It’s about time. Be warned, however, that I am not here to impress you;
you’ll have enough smoke blown up your bloomers today. And you can bet your
tassels I’m not here to impress the faculty and administration. You may not
like much of what I have to say, and that’s fine. You will remember it
though. Especially after about 10 years out there in the real world. This,
it goes without saying, does not apply to those of you who will seek your
careers and your fortunes as government employees.

This gowned gaggle behind me is your faculty. You’ve heard the old saying
that those who can - do. Those who can’t - teach. That sounds deliciously
insensitive. But there is often raw truth in insensitivity, just as you
often find feel-good falsehoods and lies in compassion. Say good-bye to your
faculty because now you are getting ready to go out there and do. These
folks behind me are going to stay right here and teach.

By the way, just because you are leaving this place with a diploma doesn’t
mean the learning is over. When an FAA flight examiner handed me my private
pilot’s license many years ago, he said, ‘Here, this is your ticket to
learn.’ The same can be said for your diploma. Believe me, the learning has
just begun.

Now, I realize that most of you consider yourselves Liberals. In fact, you
are probably very proud of your liberal views. You care so much. You feel so
much. You want to help so much. After all you’re a compassionate and caring
person, aren’t you now? Well, isn’t that just so extraordinarily special.
Now, at this age, is as good a time as any to be a liberal; as good a time
as any to know absolutely everything. You have plenty of time, starting
tomorrow, for the truth to set in.

Over the next few years, as you begin to feel the cold breath of reality
down your neck, things are going to start changing pretty fast… including
your own assessment of just how much you really know.

So here are the first assignments for your initial class in reality: Pay
attention to the news, read newspapers, and listen to the words and phrases
that proud Liberals use to promote their causes. Then, compare the words of
the left to the words and phrases you hear from those evil, heartless,
greedy conservatives. From the Left you will hear “I feel.” From the Right
you will hear “I think.” From the Liberals you will hear references to
groups — The Blacks, the Poor, The Rich, The Disadvantaged, The Less
Fortunate. From the Right you will hear references to individuals. On the
Left you hear talk of group rights; on the Right, individual rights.

That about sums it up, really: Liberals feel. Liberals care. They are pack
animals whose identity is tied up in group dynamics. Conservatives and
Libertarians think — and, setting aside the theocracy crowd, their identity
is centered on the individual.

Liberals feel that their favored groups have enforceable rights to the
property and services of productive individuals. Conservatives and
Libertarians, I among them I might add, think that individuals have the
right to protect their lives and their property from the plunder of the
masses.

In college you developed a group mentality, but if you look closely at your
diplomas you will see that they have your individual names on them. Not the
name of your school mascot, or of your fraternity or sorority, but your
name. Your group identity is going away. Your recognition and appreciation
of your individual identity starts now.

If, by the time you reach the age of 30, you do not consider yourself to be
a libertarian or a conservative, rush right back here as quickly as you can
and apply for a faculty position. These people will welcome you with open
arms. They will welcome you, that is, so long as you haven’t developed an
individual identity. Once again you will have to be willing to sign on to
the group mentality you embraced during the past four years.

Something is going to happen soon that is going to really open your eyes.
You’re going to actually get a full time job!

You’re also going to get a lifelong work partner. This partner isn’t going
to help you do your job. This partner is just going to sit back and wait for
payday. This partner doesn’t want to share in your effort, but in your
earnings.

Your new lifelong partner is actually an agent; an agent representing a
strange and diverse group of people; an agent for every teenager with an
illegitimate child; an agent for a research scientist who wanted to make
some cash answering the age-old question of why monkeys grind their teeth.
An agent for some poor demented hippie who considers herself to be a
meaningful and talented artist, but who just can’t manage to sell any of her
artwork on the open market.

Your new partner is an agent for every person with limited, if any, job
skills, but who wanted a job at City Hall. An agent or tin-horn dictators in
fancy military uniforms grasping for American foreign aid. An agent for
multi-million- dollar companies who want someone else to pay for their
overseas advertising. An agent for everybody who wants to use the
unimaginable power of this agent’s for their personal enrichment and
benefit.

That agent is our wonderful, caring, compassionate, oppressive government.
Believe me, you will be awed by the unimaginable power this agent has. Power
that you do not have A power that no individual has, or will have. This
agent has the legal power to use force, deadly force to accomplish its
goals.

You have no choice here. Your new friend is just going to walk up to you,
introduce itself rather gruffly, hand you a few forms to fill out, and move
right on in. Say hello to your own personal one ton gorilla. It will sleep
anywhere it wants to.

Now, let me tell you, this agent is not cheap. As you become successful it
will seize about 40% of everything you earn. And no, I’m sorry, there just
isn’t any way you can fire this agent of plunder, and you can’t decrease its
share of your income. That power rests with him, not you.

So, here I am saying negative things to you about government. Well, be clear
on this: It is not wrong to distrust government. It is not wrong to fear
government. In certain cases it is not even wrong to despise government for
government is inherently evil. Yes … a necessary evil, but dangerous
nonetheless … somewhat like a drug. Just as a drug that in the proper
dosage can save your life, an overdose of government can be fatal.

Now let’s address a few things that have been crammed into your minds at
this university. There are some ideas you need to expunge as soon as
possible. These ideas may work well in academic environment, but they fail
miserably out there in the real world.

First is that favorite buzz word of the media, government and academia:
Diversity! You have been taught that the real value of any group of people -
be it a social group, an employee group, a management group, whatever - is
based on diversity. This is a favored liberal ideal because diversity is
based not on an individual’s abilities or character, but on a person’s
identity and status as a member of a group. Yes, it’s that liberal group
identity thing again.

Within the great diversity movement group identification - be it racial,
gender based, or some other minority status - means more than the
individual’s integrity, character or other qualifications.

Brace yourself. You are about to move from this academic atmosphere where
diversity rules, to a workplace and a culture where individual achievement
and excellence actually count. No matter what your professors have taught
you over the last four years, you are about to learn that diversity is
absolutely no replacement for excellence, ability, and individual hard work.
From this day on every single time you hear the word “diversity” you can
rest assured that there is someone close by who is determined to rob you of
every vestige of individuality you possess.

We also need to address this thing you seem to have about “rights.” We have
witnessed an obscene explosion of so-called “rights” in the last few
decades, usually emanating from college campuses.

You know the mantra: You have the right to a job. The right to a place to
live. The right to a living wage. The right to health care. The right to an
education. You probably even have your own pet right - the right to a Beemer
for instance, or the right to have someone else provide for that child you
plan on downloading in a year or so.

Forget it. Forget those rights! I’ll tell you what your rights are! You have
a right to live free, and to the results of 60% -75% of your labor. I’ll
also tell you have no right to any portion of the life or labor of another.

You may, for instance, think that you have a right to health care. After
all, Hillary said so, didn’t she? But you cannot receive healthcare unless
some doctor or health practitioner surrenders some of his time - his life -
to you. He may be willing to do this for compensation, but that’s his
choice. You have no “right” to his time or property. You have no right to
his or any other person’s life or to any portion thereof.

You may also think you have some “right” to a job; a job with a living wage,
whatever that is. Do you mean to tell me that you have a right to force your
services on another person, and then the right to demand that this person
compensate you with their money? Sorry, forget it. I am sure you would
scream if some urban outdoorsmen (that would be “homeless person” for those
of you who don’t want to give these less fortunate people a romantic and
adventurous title) came to you and demanded his job and your money.

The people who have been telling you about all the rights you have are
simply exercising one of theirs - the right to be imbeciles. Their being
imbeciles didn’t cost anyone else either property or time. It’s their right,
and they exercise it brilliantly.

By the way, did you catch my use of the phrase “less fortunate” a bit ago
when I was talking about the urban outdoorsmen? That phrase is a favorite of
the Left. Think about it, and you’ll understand why.

To imply that one person is homeless, destitute, dirty, drunk, spaced out on
drugs, unemployable, and generally miserable because he is “less fortunate”
is to imply that a successful person - one with a job, a home and a future -
is in that position because he or she was “fortunate.” The dictionary says
that fortunate means “having derived good from an unexpected place.” There
is nothing unexpected about deriving good from hard work. There is also
nothing unexpected about deriving misery from choosing drugs, alcohol, and
the street.

If the Liberal Left can create the common perception that success and
failure are simple matters of “fortune” or “luck,” then it is easy to
promote and justify their various income redistribution schemes. After all,
we are just evening out the odds a little bit. This “success equals luck”
idea the liberals like to push is seen everywhere. Former Democratic
presidential candidate Richard Gephardt refers to high-achievers as “people
who have won life’s lottery.” He wants you to believe they are making the
big bucks because they are lucky. It’s not luck, my friends. It’s choice.
One of the greatest lessons I ever learned was in a book by Og Mandino,
entitled “The Greatest Secret in the World.” The lesson? Very simple: “Use
wisely your power of choice.”

That bum sitting on a heating grate, smelling like a wharf rat? He’s there
by choice. He is there because of the sum total of the choices he has made
in his life. This truism is absolutely the hardest thing for some people to
accept, especially those who consider themselves to be victims of something
or other - victims of discrimination, bad luck, the system, capitalism,
whatever. After all, nobody really wants to accept the blame for his or her
position in life. Not when it is so much easier to point and say, “Look! He
did this to me!” than it is to look into a mirror and say, “You S. O. B.!
You did this to me!”

The key to accepting responsibility for your life is to accept the fact that
your choices, every one of them, are leading you inexorably to either
success or failure, however you define those terms.

Some of the choices are obvious: Whether or not to stay in school. Whether
or not to get pregnant. Whether or not to hit the bottle. Whether or not to
keep this job you hate until you get another better-paying job. Whether or
not to save some of your money, or saddle yourself with huge payments for
that new car.

Some of the choices are seemingly insignificant: Whom to go to the movies
with. Whose car to ride home in. Whether to watch the tube tonight, or read
a book on investing. But, and you can be sure of this, each choice counts.
Each choice is a building block - some large, some small. But each one is a
part of the structure of your life. If you make the right choices, or if you
make more right choices than wrong ones, something absolutely terrible may
happen to you. Something unthinkable. You, my friend, could become one of
the hated, the evil, the ugly, the feared, the filthy, the successful, the
rich.

The rich basically serve two purposes in this country. First, they provide
the investments, the investment capital, and the brains for the formation of
new businesses. Businesses that hire people. Businesses that send millions
of paychecks home each week to the un-rich.

Second, the rich are a wonderful object of ridicule, distrust, and hatred.
Few things are more valuable to a politician than the envy most Americans
feel for the evil rich.

Envy is a powerful emotion. Even more powerful than the emotional minefield
that surrounded Bill Clinton when he reviewed his last batch of White House
interns. Politicians use envy to get votes and power. And they keep that
power by promising the envious that the envied will be punished: “The rich
will pay their fair share of taxes if I have anything to do with it. The
truth is that the top 10% of income earners in this country pays almost 50%
of all income taxes collected. I shudder to think what these job producers
would be paying if our tax system were any more “fair.”

You have heard, no doubt, that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Interestingly enough, our government’s own numbers show that many of the
poor actually get richer, and that quite a few of the rich actually get
poorer. But for the rich who do actually get richer, and the poor who remain
poor … there’s an explanation — a reason. The rich, you see, keep doing
the things that make them rich; while the poor keep doing the things that
make them poor.

Speaking of the poor, during your adult life you are going to hear an
endless string of politicians bemoaning the plight of the poor So, you need
to know that under our government’s definition of “poor” you can have a $5
million net worth, a $300,000 home and a new $90,000 Mercedes, all
completely paid for. You can also have a maid, cook, and valet, and $
million in your checking account, and you can still be officially defined by
our government as “living in poverty.” Now there’s something you haven’t
seen on the evening news.

How does the government pull this one off? Very simple, really. To determine
whether or not some poor soul is “living in poverty,” the government
measures one thing — just one thing. Income. It doesn’t matter one bit how
much you have, how much you own, how many cars you drive or how big they
are, whether or not your pool is heated, whether you winter in  Aspen and
spend the summers in the  Bahamas , or how much is in your savings account. It
only matters how much income you claim in that particular year. This means
that if you take a one-year leave of absence from your high-paying job and
decide to live off the money in your savings and checking accounts while you
write the next great American novel, the government says you are ‘living in
poverty.”

This isn’t exactly what you had in mind when you heard these gloomy
statistics, is it? Do you need more convincing? Try this. The government’s
own statistics show that people who are said to be “living in poverty” spend
more than $1.50 for each dollar of income they claim. Something is a bit
fishy here. Just remember all this the next time Charles Gibson tells you
about some hideous new poverty statistics.

Why has the government concocted this phony poverty scam? Because the
government needs an excuse to grow and to expand its social welfare
programs, which translates into an expansion of its power. If the government
can convince you, in all your compassion, that the number of “poor” is
increasing, it will have all the excuse it needs to sway an electorate
suffering from the advanced stages of Obsessive-Compulsive Compassion
Disorder.

I’m about to be stoned by the faculty here. They’ve already changed their
minds about that honorary degree I was going to get. That’s OK, though. I
still have my PhD. in Insensitivity from the Neal Boortz Institute for
Insensitivity Training. I learned that, in short, sensitivity sucks. It’s a
trap. Think about it - the truth knows no sensitivity. Life can be
insensitive.  Wallow too much in sensitivity and you’ll be unable to deal
with life, or the truth. So, get over it.

Now, before the dean has me shackled and hauled off, I have a few random
thoughts.

* You need to register to vote, unless you are on welfare. If you are living
off the efforts of others, please do us the favor of sitting down and
shutting up until you are on your own again.

* When you do vote, your votes for the House and the Senate are more
important than your vote for president. The House controls the purse
strings, so concentrate your awareness there.

* Liars cannot be trusted, even when the liar is the president of the
country. If someone can’t deal honestly with you, send them packing.

* Don’t bow to the temptation to use the government as an instrument of
plunder. If it is wrong for you to take money from someone else who earned
it — to take their money by force for your own needs — then it is
certainly just as wrong for you to demand that the government step forward
and do this dirty work for you.

* Don’t look in other people’s pockets. You have no business there. What
they earn is theirs. What you earn is yours. Keep it that way. Nobody owes
you anything, except to respect your privacy and your rights, and leave you
the hell alone.

* Speaking of earning, the revered 40-hour workweek is for losers Forty
hours should be considered the minimum, not the maximum. You don’t see
highly successful people clocking out of the office every afternoon at five.
The losers are the ones caught up in that afternoon rush hour. The winners
drive home in the dark.

* Free speech is meant to protect unpopular speech. Popular speech, by
definition, needs no protection.

* Finally (and aren’t you glad to hear that word), as Og Mandino wrote,

“1. Proclaim your rarity. Each of you is a rare and unique human being.

2. Use wisely your power of choice.

3. Go the extra mile .. drive home in the dark.

Oh, and put off buying a television set as long as you can. Now, if you have
any idea at all what’s good for you, you will get the hell out of here and
never come back.

Class dismissed”


A tour of Times Square from Keyframe on Vimeo.

A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs
INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs
By HERBERT MEYER

This is a paper presented several weeks ago by Herb Meyer at a Davos,
Switzerland meeting which was attended by most of the CEOs from all
the major international corporations — a very good summary of
today’s key trends and a perspective one seldom sees. Herbert E.
Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to
the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s
National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed
production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-
secret projections for the President and his national security advisers.

Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government
official to forecast the Soviet Union’s collapse, for which he later
was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service
Medal, the intelligence community’s highest honor.

Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of
several books.

-

WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON?
A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs

By HERBERT MEYER

FOUR MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS

Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping
political, economic and world events. These transformations have
profound implications for American business leaders and owners, our
culture and on our way of life.

1. The War in Iraq

There are three major monotheistic religions in the world:
Christianity, Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and
Christianity reconciled with the modern world. The rabbis, priests
and scholars found a way to settle up and pave the way forward.
Religion remained at the center of life, church and state became
separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty, individual rights,
human rights–all these are defining point of modern Western
civilization. These concepts started with the Greeks but didn’t take
off until the 15th and 16th century when Judaism and Christianity
found a way to reconcile with the modern world. When that happened,
it unleashed the scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of
art, literature and music the world has ever known. Islam, which
developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around the
world who are normal people. However, there is a radical streak
within Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western
civilization. Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th
century, and later in the 16th and 17th centuries. By 1683, the
Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman Empire) were literally at the gates
of Vienna. It was in Vienna that the climatic battle between Islam
and Western civilization took place. The West won and went forward.
Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly, the date of that battle
was September 11. Since them, Islam has not found a way to reconcile
with the modern world.

Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization by
radical Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things.
First, units of our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world
hunting down terrorist groups and dealing with them. This gets very
little publicity. Second we are taking military action in Afghanistan
and Iraq.

These actions are covered relentlessly by the media. People can argue
about whether the war in Iraq is right or wrong. However, the
underlying strategy behind the war is to use our military to remove
the radicals from power and give the moderates a chance. Our hope is
that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring Islam forward
into the 21st century. That’s what our involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan is all about.

The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a small number of
people can kill a large number of people very quickly. They can use
airplanes, bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs. Even with
a first-rate intelligence service (which the U.S. does not have), you
can’t stop every attack. That means our tolerance for political
horseplay has dropped to zero. No longer will we play games with
terrorists or weapons of mass destructions.

Most of the instability and horseplay is coming from the Middle East.

That’s why we have thought that if we could knock out the radicals
and give the moderates a chance to hold power, they might find a way
to reconcile Islam with the modern world. So when looking at
Afghanistan or Iraq, it’s important to look for any signs that they
are modernizing.

For example, women being brought into the work force and colleges in
Afghanistan is good. The Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is good.

People can argue about what the U.S. is doing and how we’re doing it,
but anything that suggests Islam is finding its way forward is good.

2. The Emergence of China

In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the
farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300
million in the next 20 years. When you put that many people into the
cities, you have to find work for them. That’s why China is addicted
to manufacturing; they have to put all the relocated people to work.
When we decide to manufacture something in the U.S., it’s based on
market needs and the opportunity to make a profit. In China, they
make the decision because they want the jobs, which is a very
different calculation.

While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to
low prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has
developed between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from
China, they will explode politically. If China stops selling to us,
our economy will take a huge hit because prices will jump. We are
subsidizing their economic development; they are subsidizing our
economic growth.

Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is hungry for
raw materials, which drives prices up worldwide. China is also
thirsty for oil, which is one reason oil is now at $100 a barrel. By
2020, China will produce more cars than the U.S. China is also buying
its way into the oil infrastructure around the world. They are doing
it in the open market and paying fair market prices, but millions of
barrels of oil that would have gone to the U.S. are now going to
China. China’s quest to assure it has the oil it needs to fuel its
economy is a major factor in world politics and economics.

We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically the
ability to get the tankers through. It won’t be long before the
Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well.
The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same
direction as ours or against us?

3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization

Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a
civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a
steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1 In Western Europe, the
birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement.
In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there
are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain
are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population
declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact on the
economy. When you don’t have young workers to replace the older ones,
you have to import them.

The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, the
Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage
is rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the
Moslem populations are not being integrated into the cultures of
their host countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason
Germany and France don’t support the Iraq war is they fear their
Moslem populations will explode on them. By 2020, more than half of
all births in the Netherlands will be non-European.

The huge design flaw in the postmodern secular state is that you need
a traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The
Europeans simply don’t wish to have children, so they are dying. In
Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60
million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very
different society than Europe, they refuse to import workers.
Instead, they are just shutting down. Japan has already closed 2,000
schools, and is closing them down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan
is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese
will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea about how to run
an economy with those demographics.

Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world’s major economic
engines, aren’t merely in recession, they’re shutting down. This will
have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning
to happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct
correlation between abandonment of traditional religious society and
a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in Europe is becoming irrelevant.

The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below
replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to
support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the
smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay
marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward
spiral only gets worse. These countries have abandoned all the
traditions they formerly held in regard to having families and
raising children.

The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an
increase in population because of immigration. When broken down by
ethnicity, the Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the
Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In the U.S., the baby boomers are
starting to retire in massive numbers. This will push the elder
dependency ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is
not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of trend.

Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive
society understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children
are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That’s how
a society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to have
forgotten that. If U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had
been the same as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security
or Medicare problems.

The world’s most effective birth control device is money. As society
creates a middle class and women move into the workforce, birth rates
drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class living.

The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic
development. After World War II, the U.S. instituted a $600 tax
credit per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four
children without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of
22 million kids, which was a huge consumer market. That turned into a
huge tax base. However, to match that incentive in today’s dollars
would cost $12,000 per child.

China and India do not have declining populations. However, in both
countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have
the technology to know which is which before they are born. In China
and India, families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of
these countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never
find wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100
girls. In some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100
girls.

The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will
be smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth’s
land surface and much of its oil. You can’t control that much area
with such a small population. Immediately to the south, you have
China with 70 million unmarried men who are a real potential
nightmare scenario for Russia.
Read the rest of this entry »

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© 2008 The Nightly Quill